Russia’s war on Ukraine has put India in a spot and ever since the blitzkrieg began on 24th February we have been walking a diplomatic tightrope with PM Modi’s government trying to avoid taking sides at the same time striving to maintain a balancing act between the West on one side and Russia on the other.

As it stands today world order is clear. The war against Ukraine has unified the entire West who are unequivocally condemning Russian aggression.  Russia is out of European bloc and  is isolated. China has not condemned the attack nor has India. The West knows which side the dragon is on and there is no ambiguity on that front.  India has perplexed the West. We were forced to pick a side and we did not. India’s voice and vote matters since we are a member of the UNSC. Last week India abstained on a UNSC resolution slamming Russia for its aggression. India won praise from Moscow for this act. The Indian government also abstained from the procedural vote taken in the UNSC to call for a special emergency session of the UN General assembly to discuss the crisis, which is a rare act. Once again yesterday  India abstained on a UN General Assembly resolution deploring Russia for its aggression, making it a 3rd abstention in a row in the UN.

Indian Foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla pointed out that dialogue between the warring factions is the only solution. He stated, “We have been engaged with all parties. Our PM has spoken with Presidents of Russia and Ukraine. We are essentially a country that has direct interest in the region. We have friends and equities in the area’’.

India offered it’s explanation to its position of neutrality and abstention of vote after the first UNSC resolution. The fact still remains that we needed to pick a side at this time and we didnot. But our reasons are compelling and grave. Indian government’s position is shaped by its concerns over territorial integrity, India’s border disputes with Pakistan & China and its known difficult relationship with its neighbours. Some experts in International relations believe that India’s subtle pro-Russia position is understandable. According to them an aggressive Russia is a problem for the US and the West and not for India. Also NATO’s expansion is Russia’s problem and not India’s. India’s major problem is China. These experts believe that weakening of US-led global order and rise of China is a major issue that India has to consider while deciding its foreign policy initiatives. Against this backdrop, Indian leadership feels safe having Russia on its side in case of rise in tensions between India & China. They can perhaps turn to Russia to counsel China.

We cannot also forget that India and Russia have had close defence ties that go back to early decades of the cold war, when the United States picked Pakistan over India. It is a different matter now that that equation has changed. India leaned towards the erstwhile Soviet Union who were supportive, friendly and sympathetic to India’s woes. In fact, Soviet Union had been India’s closest ally for a very long time. Even today Russia is India’s largest military hardware supplier of technology as well as spare parts. India started taking delivery of S-400 missile defence system from Russia despite the threat of US sanctions. There is no doubt that India has made serious attempts to diversify its sources of military equipment with France, Israel and US all of whom have emerged as our new partners. However, 60% of India’s defence equipment is still of Russian origin and we are also a major consumer of Russian oil.  The West is not giving us any guarantees about our security concerns. China continues to loom large over the sub-continent and their craving for territorial expansion is no secret. Significantly, Russia in the past has vetoed repeatedly UN resolutions condemning Indian government over its political initiatives in Indian-administered Kashmir wherein a continuous violent insurgency is ongoing since decades. 

The United States, EU, NATO and its allies are not going to forget our neutrality and abstention from vote in the UNSC. Ukraine will remember that we never stood by them inspite of admitting  thousands of Indian students in their schools to pursue their education. They are convinced that we are on the side of their  aggressors. But our security concerns are paramount to us. As I mentioned we are in the epicentre of a very hostile neighbourhood. Indian officials and foreign policy experts believe the Indian government should pursue a pragmatic path and avoid taking hasty decisions that will upset Russia, a time-tested friend of India. Presently, the priority of Indian  government is to  ensure immediate evacuation of its nationals from war zone and the government perhaps believes that it not possible without Russia’s active support. Some experts say that it is actually European security that is at stake here. Hence the diplomatic tightrope is for the West to sort out and if it does not concern the Indian border then our stand of non-alignment is not unreasonable. Hence India’s position is well-considered and balanced vis-a-vis the Ukrainian crisis. Whether India succeeds in its neutrality policy & strategic ambivalence on the Ukraine crisis or not only time will tell after the ambers have died down. back home India’s Prime Minister Modi is receiving flak from political leaders like BJP MP Subramaniam Swamy who had this to say about him. I quote, “A Prime Minister of 1.4  billion cultured people cannot be a political hijda”. On a personal note I will disagree with Mr Swamy's tweet. Rajdeep Sardesai of Media channel CNN IBN says, “Guess we have decided to consciously not take sides even as the war rages on. Realpolitik over any moral obligations to speak out against war?” Before public opinion snowballs into a crisis the Prime Minister must take the country into confidence. Foreign Policy experts and diplomats are pragmatically laying out options before the Prime Minister with India’s self-interest as prime focus. Fortunately the Prime Minister is listening to experts this time. History will judge us.